Factors that determine the attractiveness of the market and the strategic position of the business. Identification of industry attractiveness factors

Almost every adult is able to accurately determine many of his characteristics by appearance and behavior of a person: psychological traits, age, exemplary profession. But this accuracy happens only in neutral situations. The less neutral the relationship, the more people are interested in each other, the greater the likelihood of errors. The image of a partner that is created upon acquaintance is a regulator of subsequent behavior; it is necessary for correct construction communication. Consider three factors in the formation of the first impression of a person.

The stereotypical perception of a person is influenced by the "design" of his appearance. For example, in front of groups of subjects equal in all parameters, the same person acted as the object of impression formation, but to each new group from going out in different clothes. Experiments showed that when a person appeared in a different suit (in an ordinary business or work suit, religious attire, military uniform), the test groups, in addition to the traits noted in this person by all groups, also named those qualities that the suit indicated in this person. , in which the person they were estimating was.

For example, when a person was wearing a military uniform, such qualities as discipline, accuracy, perseverance, and openness towards other people were consistently attributed to him. This is partly true, since the profession leaves an imprint on a person's personality, but only partly.

In the process of perception, not only social stereotypes operate, but also stereotypes of perception of physiognomic features and human constitution. Most people are not fully familiar with physiognomy, but they heard, read something, which was deposited in the mind. Mass media replicate images that are fixed in mass consciousness and leave an imprint on the perception specific people. The most stereotypical perceptions can be cited: a square chin is a sign strong will, full lips - sexy, thin lips - a hypocrite and a hypocrite, a high forehead - smart, coarse hair - a stubborn character, short stature - a Napoleon complex, a beautiful woman - stupid, etc.

When forming an impression, the features of a person’s physique, his constitution as a whole are stereotypically perceived. Investigating the influence of a person's constitution on impressions about him, psychologists asked a group of subjects to characterize the personal characteristics of men who differed in body type. The results of the formation of the first impression are as follows:

• A full, rounded man was perceived as warm-hearted, good-natured, talkative, trusting, emotional, open, not strong and loving to eat. Comparing with this set of characteristics real characteristics a particular person, such as Winston Churchill, whose body type corresponds to the one presented, one can see how deceptive the first impression can be.
• An athletic man was perceived as strong, courageous, energetic, daring, enterprising.
• A tall, thin and fragile-looking man was perceived as nervous, ambitious, suspicious, modest.
• Fat man was perceived to be older than he actually was, and the lean one, as a rule, seemed younger than his years.

On the one hand, almost every adult person who has communication experience is able to accurately determine many of his socio-psychological characteristics: psychological traits, age, social stratum, exemplary profession based on the appearance of a person, his clothes, manner of speaking and behavior. But this accuracy happens only in neutral situations. In other situations, one or another percentage of errors is almost always present. And the less neutral the relationship, the more people are interested in each other, the greater the likelihood of errors.

This is explained by the fact that a person is never faced with the task of simply “perceiving” another. The image of a partner, which is created upon acquaintance, is a regulator of subsequent behavior, it is necessary in order to build communication correctly and effectively in this situation. Our communication is built essentially in various ways depending on who we're talking to. For each category of partners there are different "techniques" of communication, the choice of which is determined by the characteristics of the partner. Therefore, the most important characteristics in this situation are those that allow us to attribute the partner to a certain group. It is these characteristics that are perceived quite accurately. And the rest of the features and features are simply completed according to certain schemes, and this is where the probability of error manifests itself.

First impression factors

In psychology, there are three factors in the formation of the first impression of a person:

1. superiority factor;
2. attraction factor;
3. relationship factor.

Obviously, in the real process of mutual perception, these three factors act in the closest unity. Let us consider their manifestation in the formation of the first impression of another person in more detail.

1. Factor of superiority.

People entering into communication are unequal: they differ from each other in their social status, life experience, intellectual potential, etc. With the inequality of partners, the scheme of perception, which is called the factor of superiority, is most often used.

The scheme of perception is as follows. When meeting a person who is superior to us in some important parameter for us, we evaluate him somewhat more positively than if he were equal to us. If we are dealing with a person whom we are superior in some way, then we underestimate him. Moreover, superiority is fixed in one parameter, and overestimation (or underestimation) occurs in many parameters. This scheme of perception does not begin to work for everyone, but only for really important, significant for us inequality.

In order for the superiority factor to work, we first need to evaluate this superiority.
How to do it? By what signs can we judge the superiority of a person, for example, in social position or in intellectual?

To determine this parameter, we have two main sources of information at our disposal:

1. a person's clothing, his external design, including such attributes as insignia, glasses, hairstyle, awards, jewelry, and in certain cases, such elements as a car, office interior, etc .;
2. the manner of a person's behavior (how he sits, walks, talks, where he looks, etc.).

Information about superiority is usually “embedded” in one way or another in clothing and demeanor. They always contain elements that testify to a person's belonging to a particular social group or his orientation towards some group.

These elements serve as signs of group affiliation both for the wearer of clothing and behavior, and for the people around him. Understanding one's place in a group, in a particular hierarchy, as well as the position of other people, largely determines communication and interaction. Therefore, highlighting superiority by some external, visible means is always essential.

2. Attractiveness factor.

The effect of this factor in the perception of a person is that under its influence some qualities of a person are overestimated or underestimated by other people. The scheme of this factor is such that if we like a person (outwardly), then at the same time we tend to consider him more intelligent, good, interesting, etc., that is, again, overestimate many of his personal characteristics.

For example, in the experiment, teachers were asked to assess the "personal affairs" of students and the task was to determine the level of intelligence, plans for the future, relationships with peers. The secret of the experiment was that the same case was given for evaluation, but with different photos“beautiful” and “ugly” children. Beautiful children received a higher assessment of their abilities.

These data were also confirmed in the experiment of the American psychologist A. Miller, who, using the method of expert assessments, selected photographs of “beautiful”, “ordinary” and “ugly” people. He then showed these photographs to the subjects. In their assessment, the "beautiful" outperformed the "ugly" in all respects.

Numerous studies show that physical attractiveness affects evaluation not only when it is targeted at personality traits, but also when a specific result of a person's activity is evaluated. To confirm this, A.A. Bodalev gives the following example. Young people were asked to evaluate an essay written by a woman whose portrait was attached (in some groups of subjects, a portrait was used beautiful woman, in others - ugly). This essay was rated higher when it was thought to have been written by a beautiful woman.

So, the more outwardly attractive a person is to us, the better he seems in all other respects; if he is unattractive, then his other qualities are underestimated.

But everyone knows that in different time different was considered attractive, that different peoples their canons of beauty. This means that attractiveness cannot be considered only an individual impression, it is rather social in nature. Therefore, the signs of attractiveness must be sought, first of all, not in one or another section of the eyes or hair color, but in the social meaning of this or that sign of a person. After all, there are approved and not approved by society or a particular social group appearance types. And attractiveness is nothing more than the degree of approximation to the type of appearance that is most approved of by the group to which we belong.

A mark of attractiveness is a person's efforts to appear socially approved. The mechanism of formation of perception according to this scheme is the same as with the superiority factor.

It is important to emphasize that the attractiveness factor strongly influences the content of the emerging idea of ​​a person only at the moment of the formation of the first impression. In the future, the evaluation of this person increasingly begins to be determined by the nature of interaction with him and the value of his deeds and actions.

3. The factor of attitude towards us.

This factor acts in such a way that people who treat us well are valued higher than those who treat us badly. A sign of attitude towards us, which triggers the corresponding scheme of perception, is everything that indicates the agreement or disagreement of the partner with us.

Having identified the opinions of the subjects on a number of issues, psychologists acquainted them with the opinions of other people and asked them to evaluate these opinions. It turned out that the closer someone else's opinion is to one's own, the higher the assessment of the person who expressed this opinion. This rule was retroactive: the higher someone was rated, the more similarities were found in his views with their own. The conviction in this alleged "kinship of souls" was so great that the subjects simply did not notice disagreements with the position of an attractive person. It is important that there is agreement in everything, and then the factor of attitude towards us is included.

Forming a first impression

The formation of the image of another person, the first impression of him is carried out by stereotyping. A.A. Bodalev defines the first impression as difficult psychological phenomenon, which includes sensual, logical and emotional components, which includes significant features the appearance and behavior of the person who turned out to be the object of perception.

The system of forming the first impression can be conditionally represented as a “stencil” that we apply to other people.

The formation of the first impression almost always means the assignment by the individual of the perceived person to one of the groups of people in those "classifications of types" that have developed in his past. People corresponding to our standard are perceived by us with a “plus” sign, those who have significant differences - with a “minus” sign. Those who have taken an intermediate place are perceived neutrally - until a certain action, after which the first impression changes.

In an effort to create a positive first impression, it is necessary to take into account all the details that our communication partner, consciously or not, pays attention to.

The question of how accurate an impression is is not an easy one. The task of the first impression is to quickly orientate in the situation. For people, as social beings, the main thing is to determine the question of the partner's group affiliation. Therefore, it can be said that the first impression is almost always correct. The mistake is that stereotyping causes a certain assessment of yet unknown properties and qualities, which can lead to inadequate communication in the future. In constant communication, the results of first impressions continue to act. However, constant and prolonged communication cannot be satisfied with the list of traits and properties attributed to the partner that were formed during stereotyping. Here the perception and understanding of the partner occur on a different basis.

What does the formula Tb \u003d Zs / C-Zv determine?
breakeven point
If in all the situations considered the interests of the participants are observed, and possible unfavorable consequences are eliminated at the expense of the created reserves and reserves or compensated by insurance payments, the project is considered?
sustainable and efficient
Delays in payments, irregularity in the supply of raw materials and materials, fines paid and received and other sanctions for violation of contractual obligations are taken into account when using which method?
Adjustments to project parameters and economic standards
What factor appears in the evaluation of projects, research and design work performed by any organization?
bias factor
What provides the rationale for technical, organizational or economic measures, as well as the development of supporting, functional or managerial subsystems, improvement of ties with external environment systems?
comparability alternative options
Which model is graphic image links between the main and subsequent options, which provides information about the names of management decisions, the main results of each decision and the expected effectiveness?
Decision tree method
What does not apply to the types of uncertainty and investment risks?
Foreign policy risk
What should the manager do first of all if the mechanism for evaluating the implementation of decisions is not effective enough?
Assess the quality of the task
What is the functioning of the system of responsibility and motivation of managerial decisions?
Conditions for ensuring quality and efficiency
When the manager knows exactly the result of each of the alternative choices, the managerial decision is made in the condition?
Certainties
What model is a schematic representation of an economical phenomenon and process using scientific abstraction, reflecting their characteristic features?
Economic model
What is the probability that losses will not exceed a certain level?
Risk Acceptability
What is the quality parameter management decision represents the reliability, sufficiency and form of presentation of information?
The quality of the source information
What is called incompleteness and inaccuracy of information about the conditions for the implementation of the project, including the costs and results associated with them?
Uncertainty
At the stage of forming an expert group, what needs to be assessed?
Expert Consistency
Which method includes developing scenarios for the implementation of the project in the most likely or most “dangerous” conditions for the number of participants?
Stability test method
What is not included in the decisions characterizing personal profiles?
Optimal Solutions
Which of the following is not a major component of Model A?
Workforce Efficiency
Which factor is not included in the method strategic evaluation provisions and actions?
TO competitive advantage of the firm
What is not included in the elements of the internal structure of the problem?
A task
What parameter of the quality of a managerial decision is the speed of development, adoption, transfer and organization of execution?
Timeliness of decisions
Accounting for the possible probabilities of developing emergency situations, i.e. what is the acceptance and execution of controlled processes in real time?
Management decision quality requirements
What is included in scientific approaches management application in the development of managerial decisions?
Conditions for ensuring the quality of a management decision
What does not apply to the conditions of security High Quality and effectiveness of management decisions?
The rational nature of the decision
What does not apply to the parameters of the quality of management decisions?
Mission of the organization

Essay on the subject: Business communication

Job Title:

Viewed: 10542 time(s).

Downloaded: 10527 time(s).

File Format: Word Document

Size of rar archive: 20.49 kB

Work language: Russian

Archive password: 16U91143

It is very important that verbal and non-verbal means did not contradict each other: the coincidence of these means enhances confidence in a person.

Conclusion
The three types of errors discussed in this topic in the formation of the first impression are called the halo effect. The halo effect is manifested in the fact that when forming a first impression, a general positive impression of a person leads to an overestimation of an unknown person. The mechanism of errors is similar in all three cases, but the source of the halo is different reasons, which made it possible to identify three main errors - superiority, attractiveness and attitude towards us.
It is very important to note that all these three factors cover almost all possible situations of communication. It follows from this that the primary perception of the other person is erroneous. However, this is not quite true. Special studies show that almost every adult with sufficient communication experience is able to accurately determine almost all the characteristics of a partner. But this accuracy occurs only in neutral situations (and such situations occur only in special experiments and are completely absent in real life). Moreover, in the same experiments it was found that in real life there is always one or another percentage of errors. Why is this happening? Probably because a person is never faced with the task of simply perceiving another person. The image of a partner, which is created upon acquaintance, is a regulator of subsequent behavior, it is necessary in order to correctly and effectively build communication in a given situation. Our communication is built depending on who we communicate with, and for each category of partners there are different techniques communication.
76

Tags: Factors that cause errors in the perception of a business partner (“superiority factor”, “attractiveness factor”, “attitude factor”)

Affective-communicative (perceptual) function business communication

Topic 2. Essential characteristics and functions of communication

Literature

1. Psychology and ethics of business communication: Proc. for universities / Ed. V.N. Lavrienko.-M., 2001. - S.8-53, 74-126.

2. Borozdina G.V. Psychology of business communication. : Proc. allowance-M., 1998.

3. Business communication: UMP / NFMGEI, T.N. Vasilyeva, T.A. Fokina - N. Novgorod, 2003.-S. 62-66.

4. Khazanov V.E. Business conversation. Program. – M.; MGEI, 2003. - 8 p.

additional literature

1. Andreeva G.M. Social Psychology. – M.: Nauka, 2000.

2. Goranchuk V.V. Psychology of business communication and managerial influences. - St. Petersburg: Neva Publishing House; M.: "OLMA-PRESS Invest", 2003.

3. Skazhenik E.N. Business conversation. Tutorial. Taganrog: TSURE Publishing House, 2006 (electronic resource). – Access mode: http:www.aup.ru/books/m161/5.htm.

Functions of business communication- these are the roles and tasks that communication performs in the process of human social existence. There are various classifications of business communication functions.

Three interrelated characteristics of business communication are: 1) perceptual (perception and understanding of each other by people in the process of communication); 2) information (exchange of information); 3) interactive (interaction of people). In accordance with these characteristics of business communication, one can distinguish three functions of business communication: 1) affective-communicative(perceptual, directed to the regulation emotional sphere human psyche) 2) information and communication(occurs between partners who are active subjects and involves the interaction of thoughts, feelings and behavior of partners; 3) regulatory and communicative(interactive, allows you to regulate behavior and create joint activities of people in the process of their interaction).

Personal perception. Self-perception and Feedback(Jogarry's window). Social stereotype and perception. Factors of superiority, attractiveness and attitude towards us. Psychological mechanisms perception. General model of reflection. non-verbal behavior. Self-perception and feedback (Jogarry window).

In neutral situations, according to a person's appearance, his clothes, manner of speaking and behavior, a number of his socio-psychological characteristics can be quite accurately identified: age, social stratum, profession. Conversely, the more people are interested in each other, the more they can make mistakes. Errors in the perception of a partner are due to the influence of a number of factors.

superiority factor. Communication partners may differ in their social status, life experience, and intellectual potential. The inequality errors are denoted as the superiority factor. The superiority factor can arise on the basis of two sources of information: 1) a person’s clothes, his appearance, insignia, glasses, hairstyle, awards, jewelry, car, cabinet design; 2) the manner of a person's behavior (how a person sits, walks, talks, where he looks).

Under the influence attraction factor Some qualities of a person are overestimated or underestimated. If we like a person outwardly, we automatically consider him smarter, more interesting, and so on.

In the experiments of the American psychologist A. Miller, using the method of expert assessments, it was proved that the beautiful in all respects surpassed the ugly. The more attractive a person is to us, the better he seems to us in all other respects. But in different eras different peoples had their own standards of beauty. Therefore, attraction is more of a social nature. A mark of attractiveness is a person's efforts to appear socially approved.

The relationship factor. People who treat us well are valued by us above those who treat us neutrally or badly. The higher someone was rated, the greater the similarity of his views with his own. Moreover, the conviction in the kinship of souls is so great that the subjects do not notice disagreements with the position of an attractive person.

The first impression is almost always correct, since the task of the first impression is to determine the partner's group affiliation.

Mechanisms of perception and understanding: identification, empathy, reflection. Identification- likening oneself to another person . empathy - understanding at the level of feelings, the desire to emotionally respond to the problems of another person. This mechanism is possible in relation to a small group of people. Reflection - awareness by the acting individual of how he is perceived by the communication partner. Reflection is a kind of doubled process of mirror reflection of each other.

Rivalry of the main competitors.

The nature of competition in the main market has already been analyzed earlier, but in this subsection it is necessary to draw a detailed conclusion. First, the main features and scenarios of competition characteristic of the stage life cycle where the market is located. Then there is an analysis of the nature of competition over the years. At the same time, it is noted whether competition is of a price or non-price nature, is direct (competition in a homogeneous market) or indirect (occurs in segments), displacing or positional. It is necessary to take into account the market shares (and hence the influence) of industry leaders. Indirectly, the positions of leaders can be identified by the Herfindahl index. But it is more convenient to use the data of table 2 of the task. It shows the market shares of our business and its largest competitor. If our business is the leader, then its market share is greater than the share of the largest competitor, if not, then the largest competitor is the market leader. Table 1 of the assignment shows the features of competition in a particular year, the analysis of which allows us to clarify the nature of competition.

The conclusion of the subsection indicates whether changes are possible in the nature of competition and the structure of the main competitors. At the same time, all the information received on the dynamics of the main indicators should be involved. Thus, a change in the stages of the life cycle changes the nature of competition, the presence of unprofitable competitors contributes to their displacement from the market, the aggressive strategies of industry leaders lead to increased competition, as well as the emergence of new competitors, a decrease in the number of segments, etc.

Influence of manufacturers of substitute goods.

Economy class and luxury housing are mutual substitutes. Substitutes for high-end housing can be both cottages and luxury housing, and for cottages, high-end apartments are usually considered a substitute.

Necessary, given the differences between housing different class, the state of the industry, as well as comparing the forecast of demand for housing in the industry under consideration and for a substitute (as assigned), determine which substitute product exerts the most pressure and how this pressure can be avoided.

Pressure from potential competitors.

Potential competitors are most likely to emerge from residential construction industries that are close to shrinking or already shrinking.

To determine this possibility, it is necessary to calculate the ratio of potential and demand forecast for such industries and compare with the ratio for the industry in question (highlighted in bold). An example of calculation is shown in Table 5.

Table 5

Analysis of the influence of potential competitors (calculation example)

	Economy class housing	Superior apartments	luxury housing	Cottages
Demand potential (by order)
Demand Forecast (by order)
Ratio

It can be seen that the economy class housing market is close to shrinking, which will happen in a year, and it is possible to assume that some construction organizations will move to the luxury apartment market (i.e. our target market), since it still has significant demand potential. The transition to the cottage market (which is also promising) will be difficult, as there are differences in construction technology. In addition, the size of this market is 20 times smaller size shrinking market. For our market, the influence of potential competitors will be significant, since the shrinking economy class housing market is quite capacious (almost equal in volume to our market).

Bargaining power of suppliers in construction is determined by the high material consumption of the industry's products. But if there is competition among suppliers, their ability to dictate terms is minimal. Thus, it is necessary to take into account the power of suppliers if there is a trend towards concentration of the industry of suppliers of the main material (Herfindahl supplier index is more than 4200). On the other hand, the influence of suppliers can be minimized by the development of vertical integration. With the share of products of secondary industries more than 30%, the need for basic materials is provided on their own, and the influence of suppliers is reduced.

Competitive power of consumers considered in this project theoretically. It is most important to take into account the influence of consumers with a small number of them and large volumes of a single purchase, when each contract concluded can affect the firm's market share. For housing construction this is uncharacteristic, since a significant part of consumers - individuals, whose number is large.

2.1.3. Key Success Factors

Key success factors (KSF) are those actions to implement the strategy, competitive opportunities, performance results that the company must provide in order to be competitive and achieve financial success. These are the factors providing the advantage by which the firm occupies a leading position in the industry. Usually the number of KFU does not exceed three or four. Examples of such factors are: opportunities for innovation in manufacturing, development of new products, degree of mastery of existing technologies, low cost, product quality, high utilization of production capacity, advantageous location of the enterprise, access to skilled labor, high labor productivity, ability to perform individual orders consumers, low distribution costs, accurate order fulfillment, variety of product types/models, guarantees, know-how, rapid adoption of new technologies, ability to respond quickly to changing situations, experience in management, favorable reputation, low costs, access to financial markets, lobbying opportunities, availability of patents and licenses.

In this section, it is necessary, based on the results of the previous analysis, to reasonably select 1-3 key factors.

2.1.4. Comprehensive assessment of the long-term attractiveness of the industry

The final step in the analysis of the industry and the competitive situation is to assess the situation in the industry as a whole and develop an opinion about the relative attractiveness or unattractiveness of the industry in the future.

The definition of a comprehensive assessment is based on expert method(the student acts as an expert) and includes the following steps:

Selection of 5-7 factors (criteria) characterizing the attractiveness of the industry;

Evaluation of each of the factors on a 5-point scale;

Determining the weight (degree of importance) of each of the factors using the method of analysis of hierarchies T. Saaty;

Calculation of a comprehensive assessment as a geometric weighted average.

The calculation of a comprehensive assessment is drawn up in tabular form (see Table 8)

Selection of industry attractiveness factors

The most universal and obvious the following factors attractiveness of the industry for business:

Industry growth rate;

Demand potential (potential/forecast ratio);

Level of profitability;

The intensity and nature of competition;

Degree of uncertainty and risk.

But the composition and importance of attractiveness factors depends on the stage of the life cycle. Below are the factors that are relevant at individual stages in descending order of importance.

At the stage of birth: demand potential; innovation opportunities (allowing to reduce prices and stimulate growth), cost and price reduction, competitive pressure (especially from substitutes).

At the growth stage: growth rate, growth rate (the higher it is, the easier it is to gain market share, but the faster it is necessary to increase production volumes in order not to lose it), demand potential, external competitive influence (the possibility of new competitors coming, the restrictive role of suppliers) . The level of profitability is not so important.

At the deployment stage: the intensity of competition, the nature of competition (direct, indirect at the level of segments; price or non-price), demand potential, level of profitability.

At the stages of maturity and saturation: the level of profitability, the severity of competition (in the main market), the stability of the industry (the level of variation of the main indicators), the demand potential.

Downsizing: rate of downsizing, ability to move into remaining profitable segments, barriers to exit, competitor behavior (whether there is a reduction in assets or reduced capacity utilization).

At the stage of decomposition, factors are similar to the stage of maturity, but the size of the market is of particular importance.

After choosing the factors, it is necessary to give their numerical values ​​(if possible) or a textual description of the state of the factor.

Assessment of factors.

The value of each criterion factor should be assessed in terms of the attractiveness of the industry on a 5-point scale:

3 points - the factor reflects average level industry attractiveness;

4 points - level "above average";

5 points - high level;

2 points - below average level;

1 point - low level.

The scoring of the factor values ​​is performed relative to the average regional or recommended value. So, if the level of profitability of the industry is approximately equal to the regional average, then a score of 3 points should be given (the industry is average in terms of attractiveness in the region in terms of profitability). If the industry profitability turns out to be higher, the score will be 4 or 5, since the higher the profitability, the more attractive the industry for business.

When evaluating the ratio of potential and demand forecast, standard value we accepted at the level of 3.0, it will correspond to a score of 3 points - average attractiveness. With a lower value, the attractiveness of the industry for this factor will be assessed lower, with a higher value - above 3 points.

When evaluating competition, the scores will be inversely proportional to the intensity of competition, since an industry is more attractive the less competition.

In general, estimates are determined from the standpoint of an outside observer, not an industry participant. However, in some cases, competitive pressure cannot be assessed without taking into account the current position of the firm conducting the analysis. Thus, for an industry leader with undeniable advantages and crowding out competitors, competition in the industry will be assessed as insignificant (in fact, none of the competitors can resist it), and the assessment will be high (that is, the industry will be very attractive to him). However, for all other competitors, the industry will appear highly competitive, and the assessment of attractiveness will be low. To take into account the position of our business (branch), you should pay attention to the data in table 2 of the assignment, which shows the shares of the company and its largest competitor in the market.

The assessed factors are not equivalent, some of them are more important, to a greater extent characterize the attractiveness of the industry. To take into account the difference in the degree of significance (importance) of factors, it is necessary to determine their weight coefficients (weights). In this project, it is recommended to apply the Hierarchy Analysis Method (AHP) developed by T. Saaty. ,.

First step The application of the AHP is to structure the problem in a hierarchy. In this course project, the problem is characterized by the simplest two-level hierarchy. At its top there will be an indicator "attractiveness of the industry". The second level is formed by previously selected industry attractiveness factors.

At the second stage hierarchy elements are compared by an expert in pairs in relation to their impact on their common characteristics. In our case, the selected attractiveness factors will be compared in pairs, in terms of how much they reflect the "attractiveness of the industry".

The system of paired comparisons reduces the requirements for experts assessing the problem, simplifies their work, since it is much easier to compare two indicators (determining which one is more important) than to evaluate all indicators together.

The expert draws up the result of paired comparisons in the form of a square matrix. The element of the matrix a(i, j) is the relative importance of the factor i (i.e. the factor in the row) relative to the factor j (in the column), assessed on a scale from 1 to 9, where the scores have the following meaning:

1 - equal importance of factors in the row and column;

3 - moderate superiority of the importance of the factor in the row over the factor in the column;

5 - significant or strong superiority;

7 - significant superiority;

9 - very strong superiority;

2, 4, 6, 8 - intermediate values.

If, on the contrary, the j factor turned out to be more important than the i factor, the values ​​will be reversed - from 1/2 to 1/9.

The matrix has the following properties:

Its diagonal is formed by units, since when comparing factors with themselves, they are equally important;

For any i, j a(i, j) = 1/ a(j, i). It is clear that if the factor i with any intensity is more important than j, then with the same intensity the factor j will be less important than i. Using this property, it is enough to fill only half of the matrix, above or below the diagonal, and fill the other half with the inverse values.

After filling in the matrix, it is necessary to move from paired estimates to importance estimates and factor weights. In the general case, the task is reduced to finding the eigenvector of the matrix, however, given its high complexity, approximate calculations are often used using the geometric mean of paired estimates over the rows of the matrix:

where X i is the assessment of the importance of the factor i (the weight of the factor, not reduced to one);

and ij is an estimate of the relative importance of the factor i in relation to j;

n is the number of estimated factors (dimension of the matrix).

The weights must then be normalized, i.e. brought to one:

where P i is the normalized weight of the factor, Σ P i = 1.

During the evaluation process, the expert may make a mistake. For example, he may prefer factor 1 to factor 2, factor 2 to factor 3, and at the same time evaluate factor 1 as less important than the third. To identify such errors, you should calculate the consistency index (SI) and the consistency ratio of the pairwise comparison matrix (CS):

where CC is the average random consistency of the matrix that would result from a random selection of quantitative judgments from our scale and the formation of an inversely symmetric matrix.

The average random consistency depends on the dimension of the matrix and is selected from Table 6.

Table 6

Mean Random Consistency Values

Dimension of the matrix (n)
Random Consistency

The OS value should be less than 0.1 (10%). In the case of large values, the expert needs to check his judgments.

Example (according to table 7). Let the following factors be chosen: “demand potential”, “competition level” and “profitability”. Assuming the industry is in the mature stage (expanded phase), then profitability will be the most important factor, followed by the level of competition and demand potential. We write the factors in the matrix in descending order of significance, then when it is filled in, the estimates above the diagonal will be greater than one. We enter units in the diagonal cells of the matrix.

The profitability factor is moderately more important than the level of competition, because intense competition can lead to a drop in profitability in the future - a score of 3 in cell a 12. Compared to the demand potential, profitability to a much greater extent reflects the attractiveness of the industry, since at the stage of maturity the main task- Getting the maximum profit. Grade 5 is entered in cell a 13. The factors of competition and demand potential are close in importance, the superiority of the first factor is insignificant. The score can be 2 points.

Table 7

Pairwise comparison matrix (example)

	1. Profitability	2.Level of competition	3. Demand potential	Geometric mean value of the importance of Xi	Normalized Pi weights
1. Profitability					2,466/ 3,804= 0,648
2.Level of competition					0,874/ 3,804= 0,23
3. Demand potential					0,46/ 3,8= 0,122

λmax = 1.533*0.648+4.5*0.23+8*0.122=3.005,

IP \u003d (3.005-3) / 2 \u003d 0.0025. OS=0.0025/0.58=0.004<0,1.

Consistency index within the normal range.

The rationale for the assessments of the factors themselves, and the calculation of the comprehensive assessment is drawn up according to the example of Table 8.

Table 8

Calculation of industry attractiveness score (example)

	Meaning			Comprehensive assessment
1. Profitability	38%, well above the regional average (25%)			5 0,648 *3 0,23 *4 0,122 =4,326 The high value of industry attractiveness
2. Level of competition	Middle. Non-price competition in the absence of a clear leader (IC is close to the minimum), in a homogeneous market (6 competitors in 2 segments), in the absence of aggressive struggle.
3. Demand potential	The ratio of potential and demand forecast is 6.5.

When calculating a comprehensive assessment (CO), preference is given to the geometric mean, calculated by the formula:

where О i is the estimate of the factor i;

P i is the weight of factor i.

When using the arithmetic mean, mutual compensation of the values ​​of factor estimates can occur, leading to paradoxical conclusions. For the chosen factors, a high value of one cannot compensate for a too low value of the other. Thus, high profitability will not increase attractiveness if the demand potential is exhausted and the market is close to shrinking. Let's assume that the evaluation of one of the factors turns out to be equal to zero. Then the geometric mean also vanishes for any values ​​of other estimates, which logically reflects the extremely low attractiveness of the industry. But if you use the arithmetic mean, with high values ​​of the other estimates, the average may turn out to be higher than three points, forming an erroneous conclusion.